Chapter 2
What If?
In the 1950's, my family began to heed the counsel to do all we could to
learn to become self-sufficient. Over the last 40+ years, none of the predicted
major wars, widespread devastating earthquakes, or global financial chaos we
prepared for ever materialized. Is there really any reason, then, for me to
write this book to encourage you to prepare for possible disasters? Yes, yes,
yes and yes!, because disasters of all kinds are on the increase.
Consider the following facts:
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the number of earthquakes
registering 6.0 and higher remained fairly constant up until 1950, averaging 2-4
per decade. The numbers then began increasing significantly (See chart below.)
Surprisingly, the increase in volcanic eruptions follows a very similar pattern.
Tornado totals for 1916 through 1998 follow the same pattern, with a dramatic
increase during the 1990s.
We are seeing record-breaking storms, flooding, drought, hot and cold
temperatures, as all of our weather becomes more severe. Many times each year,
rescue efforts are organized to help in areas of widespread disaster. When will
it end? According to Revelation and other books of scripture, as we get closer
to the Savior's coming, extreme weather conditions will become the norm, rather
than the exception, making the predicted famines inevitable.
Wars and rumors of war have also steadily increased. According to the United
Nations reports, violence in 1998 has almost doubled that in 1997.
Disease is increasing, despite modern medical advances. The plague of AIDS
has become the leading cause of death for the 25-44 year old male in the U.S.
According to Roger K. Young, author of "...And There Shall Be
Signs...", "Pfesteria, Hauntavirus, Ebola, Heart Disease, Cancer,
Diabetes, Gonorrhea, Syphilis, Super Tuberculosis, Plague, Lyme disease, Gulf
War Syndrome....are just a few of the diseases that are running rampant
throughout the world. Most have become incurable in that they are, or have
become, immune to treatment by antibiotics."
Even though catastrophic events and diseases are increasing, many people live
in areas of the country where they are relatively unaffected. Does that mean
those people need not prepare for disasters?
A disaster doesn't have to be MAJOR to produce major consequences capable of
upsetting normal everyday routines, or even to produce a scene much like the
Nightmare Dream mentioned in the previous chapter. There are many disasters that
can and do occur in families, neighborhoods, or communities that can be
minimized or averted, IF we are prepared.
After all, we've been strongly urged since 1937 (Conference Report, April
1937, p. 26.) to store a year's supply of food and other necessities in our
homes, against any one or a combination of the several possible
emergencies-unemployment, sickness, strikes, famine, civil disorder, war, and so
on. To be unprepared despite the repeated warnings would certainly increase the
nightmare quality of the experience.
In the following "What If" scenarios, many of which have actually
occurred in my own family or to close friends, try to picture yourself and your
family in these same situations. What would you do IF these happened to you?
WHAT IF...you turn the television on to the weather channel and hear that a
category 4 hurricane is headed your way. After days of heavy rain, the lake near
you is expected to crest within the next several days. What will you do?
Consider the following scenarios:
1) It is the end of the month. You are really short of cash. Your 4 credit
cards are maxed out and you have only have 1/4 of a tank of gas. To get to
safety, you need to travel hundreds of miles to beat the storm and look for a
free shelter;
2) You have only one car and your husband needs it to work up to the last
possible minute. You need to go to the bank and are not sure how long it will
stay open, since the employees also need to get out of town. You decide to take
the children and walk to the store to buy food, water and diapers, but as you
get close, you see the lines are blocks long. The temperature is in the 90s, and
the children are miserable. When you all finally get inside, all the water is
gone. The only diapers available are "newborn" size;
3) The roads out of town are backed up for miles and your car's engine is
coughing and sputtering. You might be nearly out of gas, but it's more likely
that the car really DID need the tune-up you've been putting off for months.
OR...What IF
1) It is the end of the month, but you aren't at all worried, because you
have enough cash on hand for emergencies. You always pay off your credit card
bills each month, so if you run short, you can always "charge it!" You
never let your gas tank get less than half full.
2) You don't need to fight the crowds at the grocery store because you have
on hand;
A- A 72-hour kit for each family member, and an emergency kit in each car;
B- A year's supply of the necessary food and personal items your family will
need;
C- Because you as a family have a preparedness plan, and a prearranged
location where you can go to wait out the storm, no one panics;
3) You have your automobile in peak condition, because you faithfully follow
your scheduled maintenance program.
WHAT IF...the wind suddenly increases and the balmy summer day turns ugly, as
winds uproot power poles and massive 100-year old trees as if they were match
sticks. Suddenly, you are without power, even though you are miles away from the
worst damage. It is estimated that it will take days for repairs to be made.
WHAT IF...your husband suddenly loses his job? Jobs are scarce, and
predictions are that it will take at least 6 months to find something suitable.
You could go to work, but your salary wouldn't begin to cover all the bills.
WHAT IF...you are in a drought that has lasted through the 6 hottest months
of the year. You have been careful to water only during your few allotted hours
each week. Friends in other parts of the state have experienced low water
pressure because the drying clay soils have shifted, causing water pipes to
burst. Without warning, you find that you have no water at all. When you turn on
the television, you find that the town's water main has broken, and that you
should expect to be without water for at least 2 days, and that all water will
have to be boiled or purified for several days thereafter.
WHAT IF...an ice storm blows through in the night and you wake up to find you
are without power. The weather is well below freezing, and the skies are cloudy
and threatening. The house is dark and cold, even during the daytime. Ice is so
thick that everyone is advised to stay at home for at least 4 days until the
weather clears.
WHAT IF...a winter snow storm closes the main roads to your town. Within a
few hours, your grocery store tells you it could be as long as a week before
they can again get fresh produce and supplies to stock their empty shelves.
WHAT IF...you head to the grocery store for your week's worth of food and
other essentials, and then discover you've made a major boo-boo in your
checkbook and you are already $500 overdrawn. You have cut up all your credit
cards in an effort to get them paid off, so you really have no where to turn.
WHAT IF...you are hurt on the job and won't receive a regular paycheck again
for several months?
WHAT IF...you have an accident that totals your car, and even with the
insurance money, you must come up with several thousand dollars to find a
suitable replacement.
WHAT IF...you work for a company that manufactures winter clothing and
camping gear. Because of the unseasonably warm weather this year, sales are at
an all-time low. You are advised that in order to survive without layoffs, the
company must cut salaries by 10% for all employees, at least until the next
season, which is 6 months away.
WHAT IF...a family member dies, and you must take unpaid time off work and
buy airline tickets you really can't afford, in order to travel to the
funeral...or, what if it's the wage earner in your family who dies? Are you
prepared to live without that income? For how long?
I don't know very many people who haven't yet experienced at least some of
the above situations. Sadly enough, most of those people were unprepared for the
emergencies they faced. Most, however, experienced only a loss of employment.
Only those who had been obedient to the counsel to store food were able to
survive their time of crisis without fear.
Perhaps for most of us there is still time to prepare, IF we procrastinate no
further. Who can say what "emergency" lies just around the next
corner???
Why live from day to day...or from paycheck to paycheck? Why not be prepared
by getting out of debt, storing a year's supply of basics, buying in bulk and on
sale, living from a well-stocked pantry rather than running to the store several
times a week? You too can learn to be more self-sufficient, to spend less than
Over 30 years ago Esther Dickey wrote the original 'Passport to Survival' which was the standard for many years. Esther's daughter,